Wednesday, December 5, 2012

The Mayans Couldn't Figure Out College Football Playoffs, Sadly

The Mayans Couldn't Figure Out College Football Playoffs, Sadly

It's my favorite time of year. It's not so much a matter of stocking up on my "special" supply of eggnog, hot chocolate and cider. It's not so much a matter of enduring bad Lifetime holiday-themed movies. It's not even about commiserating over family dysfunction during a time that's supposed to be filled with positive personal reflection and cheer.

When it comes to the NCAA Division I football national championship, it's again time to debate the fairness of the Bull Crap Series, errr, umm, Bowl Championship Series. I won't say Notre Dame or Alabama isn’t deserving to play for the national title. While many SEC fans voice their confidence in romping the Knute Rocknes, or even claiming the Irish don't belong in the final match, Notre Dame did its job. It went undefeated, even grinding out wins when the outcome wasn't so sure.

And oh, Crimson Tide. They did lose a game at home. It's not like last year where they failed to win the SEC championship yet got to the BCS title game and secured a victory. But no matter. They found a way into the final championship contest this year. However, we're two years away from a semblance of an overdue Division I college football "playoff system." It's fun to ponder "what ifs" -- what if a computer didn't help to arbitrarily determine the two teams that'll play for a national championship?

Again, Alabama and Notre Dame may have proven they've been among the best two schools to play this season, wire to wire. The title game looks to be better than many of you think. (I'm looking at you, SEC fan.) But aside from a couple of other bowl games this season, the undercard looks rather underwhelming. Consider No. 4 Florida taking on Big East champion Louisville, which was unranked prior to their conference title match. Look at unranked Wisconsin run roughshod over a ranked Nebraska squad in the Big 10 championship game and secure a Rose Bowl berth. Then, there are the college football elitists complaining about Northern Illinois crashing the party and snagging an Orange Bowl berth. The Huskies did their job. They won and won well. Don't hate the program, hate the current system.

Consider the Sun Bowl featuring a losing team in Georgia Tech against a bunch of underachievers, USC. Two teams with 6-6 marks -- Rice and Air Force -- will be mired in the Armed Forces Bowl while Pittsburgh meets Ole Miss in the BBVA Compass Bowl. We're talking ratings gold barnburners here. And through the bedlam of Selection Sunday, Louisiana, Tech, the nation's highest-scoring team that won nine games and had a sniff of Top 25 fame, didn't get chosen for any of the 35 or 102 bowl games, whatever the number is nowadays. (It didn't help when the Bulldogs got too big for their britches and, reportedly, said "nyet" to going to the nearby Independence Bowl for the possibility of what could've been a decent all-Louisiana affair in UL-Monroe).

The “powers that be” that help to determine BCS and non-BCS bowl contestants are primarily television executives and power conference presidents who only want to see and sell sex when it comes to bowl games. They'd rather arbitrarily pair two traditional powerhouses via a computer rather than let rising star schools settle such questions where it truly counts: on the playing field. Just like virtually every other level of sport. Wow. What a startling concept. Even the Kazahkistani kick-goathead league has a playoff. I’ve won some money there. I've lost a lot more there. Without the NCAA basketball tournament, schools like George Mason and Butler likely would have never made it to the Final Four. You see Gonzagas and Marquettes make their mark on the national scene. Without the College World Series, schools like Cal State-Fullerton and Long Beach State -- not so much a Texas or USC -- get to shine and quite often.

In most existing playoff systems/postseason tournaments, the most "deserving" teams make the playoffs, not necessarily the ones picked "the best." There's a difference. We can debate all we want about good losses, bad losses, strength of schedule, etc., during the regular season, but when it comes down to the nitty gritty to determine an absolute champion, why not go the way of a tournament?

Well, we won’t waste further time going into the minds of those myopically opposed to a NCAA Division I tournament of some kind. Even the “bowl games are a tradition” and “schools will lose money” and “you can’t make the student-athletes play that long or late into January” philosophies. None of those arguments really work. Never did, never will. Some say the BCS isn’t perfect, but that it’s a start.

So, what if a playoff system did exist for college football? My goodness, what fun that’d be. OK, let’s use dying BCS as a springboard. This is what I'd do to create a 16-team tournament. You start with automatic champions from 11 FBS (Football Championship Series) conferences (regular-season champs and/or championship game victors). There is the thought that if an annual playoff system is allowed to mature, conference championship games might become relevant. That's fine. Until then let's play with what we have.

If there are co-champions, it’s up to the affected conference to determine who gets what we’ll call an FBS bid. You could combine the final regular season total average poll ranking with regular-season head-to-head outcomes for a tie-breaker. (Sound unfair? Good. You get to retain some semblance of unfairness in the process of arriving at a final national champion)

You could average the rankings of the AP, ESPN, USA Today, Harris, Legends and Coaches' polls, emphasizing which schools get the most place votes and arrive at a final aggregate Top 25 poll (a de facto BCS ranking system, if you will, without the computer interference). Those are arguably the strongest, long-standing, most popular and credible of Division I polls. And you get to a beautiful bracket like the one above (courtesy of NCAA). Isn't it gorgeous and awe-inspiring?

Here’s what a final 2012 FBS aggregate poll would look like:

1. Notre Dame (12-0)
2. Alabama (12-1) (SEC champion)
3. Oregon (11-1)
4. Florida (11-1)
5. Georgia (11-2)
6. Kansas State (11-1) (Big 12 champion)
7.  Stanford (11-2) (Pac-12 champion)
8. LSU (10-2)
9. Texas A&M (10-2)
10. South Carolina (10-2)
11. Oklahoma (10-2)
12. Florida State (11-2) (ACC champion)
13. Oregon State (9-3)
14. Clemson CL(10-2)
15. Boise State (10-2) (Mountain West co-champion)
16. Northern Illinois            (12-1) (MAC champion)
17. Nebraska (10-3)
18. UCLA (9-4)
19. Michigan            (8-4)
20. Louisville (10-2) (Big East champion)
21. Northwestern (9-3)
22. Utah State (10-2) (WAC champion)
23. Texas (8-4)
24. San Jose State (10-2)
25. Kent State (11-2)
Wisconsin (Big 10 champion)
Arkansas State (Sun Belt champion)
Tulsa (Conference USA champion)

Ultimately, FBS automatic bids would go to Alabama, Kansas State, Stanford, Florida State, Boise State (highest ranked co-champion of MWC), Northern Illinois, Louisville, Utah State, Wisconsin, Arkansas State and Tulsa.

You add the top independent team ranked high enough overall in polls for an FBS bid and/or four (or five) other highest-ranked schools, overall in polls. So this year these schools get an at-large bid: Notre Dame, Oregon, Florida, Georgia and LSU.

The ultimate FBS tournament seedings in a 16 vs. 1, 15 vs. 2, 14, vs. 3, etc. format would be:

1. Notre Dame
2. Alabama
3. Oregon
4. Florida
5. Georgia
6. Kansas State
7. Stanford
8. LSU
9. Florida State
10. Boise State
11. Northern Illinois
12. Louisville
13. Utah State
14. Wisconsin
15. Tulsa
16. Arkansas State

Take into account the oldest, popular, most lucrative, traditional bowls and mix in some regional flair and considerate schedules. You can keep some of the best bowls. (I mean, really. The glut of bowls is ludicrous. More and more are added each year, some from inauspicious sponsors. Does anyone care to see the San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl? Oooh, must-see. No offense, Michigan State and TCU, but really? The Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl, formerly Insight Bowl-turned-Valley of the Sun Bowl? I like dining at BWW, not watching its sponsored bowl games. Beef O'Brady's Bowl, that standard-bearer of non-BCS bowl games, this year has...meh, who gives a crap. If we ignore the Meineke Care Care Bowl of Texas, featuring - inexplicably - Texas Tech and Minnesota (how did they get a bid), does that game cease to exist? And Heart of Dallas Bowl? Seriously? Oh, we could so perpetuate a Roady's Truck Stops FreeCreditReport.com Pomegranate Cherry Salad Bowl presented by Franklin American Mortgage Company joke.

All joking aside, use 15 of those prestigious, richest, most famous (i.e. powerful, established) bowls as the FBS bowl matches. All other bowls… yes, even your precious Idaho Potato, Bell Helicopter Armed Forces, GoDaddy.com… may remain independent and ongoing aside from the FBS contests. No changes needed there.

Rotate the FBS bowls as quarterfinal, semifinal and final games, all of which could retain and maybe even increase the number of ticket-buyers, TV viewers and payouts. One reason? There’s even greater incentive to play in such a bowl. Not just one bowl. But a series of true head-to-head games where all the conference champions (not just the typical, known powerhouses) and other top-ranked squads have a genuine (and fair) shot at an undisputed national title. Throw in serious regional consideration and voila. Imagine that!

The younger, Decemberish bowls host quarterfinals on Wednesday, Thursday, Friday and Saturday, given this year’s calendar:

December 12
Tulsa vs. Alabama -- Advocare V100 Independence Bowl; Shreveport
Arkansas State vs. Notre Dame -- Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl (Insight, Copper, whatever else it used to be); Tempe

Dec. 13
Florida State vs. LSU -- Chick-Fil-A (Peach) Bowl, Atlanta
Boise State vs. Stanford -- Hyundai Sun Bowl, El Paso

Dec. 14
Louisville vs. Georgia -- Taxslayer.com (Taxslayer.com?) Gator Bowl, Jacksonville
Northern Illinois vs. Kansas State -- Valero Alamo Bowl, San Antonio

Dec. 15
Utah State vs. Florida -- AutoZone Liberty Bowl, Memphis
Wisconsin vs. Oregon -- Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl, San Diego

Probable winners?
Alabama, Notre Dame, Stanford, Florida State, Georgia, Kansas State, Florida, Oregon

More bowls in Thursday and Friday semifinals involve 1-16 vs. 8-9; 5-12 vs. 4-13; 6-11 vs. 3-14; 7-10 vs. 2-15.

Dec. 20
Florida State vs. Notre Dame -- Capital One (Citrus) Bowl, Orlando
Stanford vs. Alabama -- AT&T Cotton Bowl, Dallas

Dec. 21
Kansas State vs. Oregon -- Fiesta Bowl, Tempe
Georgia vs. Florida -- Outback Bowl, Tampa

Probable winners?
Notre Dame, Stanford, Kansas State, Georgia

Final Four of sorts/Tuesday, Jan. 1
Stanford vs. Kansas State -- Sugar Bowl, New Orleans
Georgia vs. Notre Dame -- Orange Bowl, Miami

Championship game, Monday, Jan. 7
Rose Bowl, Pasadena
Kansas State vs. Georgia

Who wins? Well, let this unfold in reality. I recall how a House subcommittee approved legislation in late 2009 aimed at forcing college football to switch to a playoff system to determine a national champion, over the objections of some lawmakers who said Congress had more pressing matters on its plate. To those naysayers, I say: screw war and the national debt, let’s have some MACtion.

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