Showing posts with label college football. Show all posts
Showing posts with label college football. Show all posts

Thursday, December 17, 2015

Imagining a wider college football playoff is an X-mas tradition!

It’s that time of year when I reflect on the past year (very challenging on personal and professional levels), view all of the traditional and non-traditional holiday movies, and stock up on an ungodly amount of tamales and eggnog.

And it’s also time for imagining an ideal NCAA Division I football playoff. It’s fun and a nice break in between all of my writing work. As I have said time and again, just about every other major level of organized sport has some kind of tournament. 

Even the Bahrain goathead kickball league has a playoff system. Let the best teams fight it out for a championship. It was not so much an unfairness about previous ways that a Division I championship game was determined, by mere polls and then a computer.
If a not-so-renowned school ends up winning, so be it. Supporters of a playoff system have heard all the arguments. That the bowl tradition is over. That student-athletes would be distracted from studying for finals. That schools would lose money. Those arguments no longer work. A tournament hasn’t harmed FCS or Division II or III or NAIA schools.

So, how would a wider Division I playoff work? Begin with automatic champions from FBS (Football Championship Series) conferences -- regular-season champs and championship game victors.

If there are co-champions, leave it to that conference to determine who gets what would be an automatic FBS bid. With 10 conferences, we get 12 automatic bids. Then average the rankings of the existing computer rankings, and AP, ESPN and USA Today coaches polls, focusing on which schools get the most place votes, and arrive at a final aggregate Top 25 poll. Top-ranked FBS independents, also, would be considered as usual.

Here’s what a final 2015 FBS aggregate poll would look like, with current conference titleholder status and final regular season record:

1) Clemson (ACC champion)
2) Alabama (SEC champion)
3) Michigan State (Big 10 champion)
4) Oklahoma (Big 12 champion)
5) Stanford (Pac-12 champion)
6) Iowa
7) Ohio State
8) Notre Dame
9) North Carolina
10) Florida State
11) TCU
12) Ole Miss
13) Northwestern
14) Oklahoma State
15) Oregon
16) Michigan
17) Baylor
18) Houston (AAC champion)
19) Florida
20) Utah
21) LSU
22) Navy
23) Temple
24) USC
25) Wisconsin

Unranked conference champions
Western Kentucky (Conference USA champion)
Bowling Green (Mid-American champion)
San Diego State (Mountain West champion)
Arkansas State (Sun Belt champion)

Ultimately, FBS automatic bids would go to Clemson, Alabama, Michigan State, Oklahoma, Stanford, Houston, Western Kentucky, Bowling Green, San Diego State and Arkansas State,
 
You add any top independent team ranked high enough overall in polls for an FBS bid and/or four (or five) other highest-ranked schools, overall in polls. So this year these schools get an at-large bid: Iowa, Ohio State, Notre Dame, North Carolina, Florida State and TCU

The ultimate FBS tournament seedings in a 16 vs. 1, 15 vs. 2, 14, vs. 3, etc. format would be:

1. Clemson
2. Alabama
3. Michigan State
4. Oklahoma
5. Stanford
6. Iowa
7. Ohio State
8. Notre Dame
9. North Carolina
10. Florida State
11. TCU
12. Houston
13. Western Kentucky
14. San Diego State
15. Bowling Green
16. Arkansas State

Now let’s consider the oldest, popular, most lucrative, traditional bowls and mix in some regional flair, possible area rivalry matches and considerate schedules. 

(Let’s digress for a moment: In the process, let’s ditch most of the younger bowls. I mean, cmon, the Miami Beach Bowl? Marmot Boca Rataon Bowl? New Era Pinstripe Bowl, still? Popeyes Bahamas Bowl? Nova Home Loans Arizona Bowl? Quick Lane Bowl, still in Detroit? In winter? Too many bowls dilute the prestige of even earning a shot at postseason play, and permits five-win and six-win teams to get in when they really shouldn't be there.)

OK, tangent over. All joking aside, use 15 of those prestigious, richest, most famous (i.e. powerful, established) bowls as the FBS bowl matches. All other bowls, may stick around for our comical entertainment, to be watched mainly on ESPN the Ocho.

Rotate the FBS bowls as quarterfinal, semifinal and final games, all of which very likely would raise the number of ticket-buyers, TV viewers and payouts. Why? There would be a greater incentive to play in such a lucrative bowl. A chance to advance and win a won-on-the-field title. All the conference champs and at-large bidders get a fair shot.
Looking at the 2015 calendar, the younger, Decemberish bowls host quarterfinals on various days: 1 vs. 16, 2 vs. 15, 3 vs. 14, 4 vs. 13, 5 vs. 12, 6 vs. 11, 7 vs. 10, and 8 vs. 9.

Tuesday, Dec. 15
TCU vs. Iowa– Motel 6 Catcus (formerly Copper, Insight, Buffalo Wild Wings); Tempe

Wednesday, Dec. 16
Arkansas State vs. Clemson -- Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus (formerly Tangerine, Capital One); Orlando
Houston vs. Stanford-- Holiday; San Diego

Thursday, Dec. 17
Bowling Green vs. Alabama -- Outback (formerly Hall of Fame); Tampa
San Diego State vs. Michigan State -- Valero Alamo;

Friday, Dec. 18
Florida State vs. Ohio State -- AutoZone Liberty; Memphis
Western Kentucky vs. Oklahoma – Camping World Independence; Shreveport

Saturday, Dec. 19
North Carolina vs. Notre Dame-- TaxSlayer (formerly Gator); Jacksonville

Probable winners?
Iowa, Clemson, Houston (upset special!), Alabama, Michigan State, Ohio State, Oklahoma, North Carolina (upset special!)

I’m departing from previous years worth of scenarios and going for highest vs. lowest surviving seeds for match-ups in bowls in the following week's semifinals. Regional match-up is still a priority as best as it can be considered.

Wednesday, Dec. 23
Ohio State vs. Michigan State -- Allstate Sugar; New Orleans

Friday, Dec. 25
Houston vs. Clemson -- Goodyear Cotton; Dallas

Saturday, Dec. 26
North Carolina vs. Alabama -- Chick-fil-A Peach; Atlanta
Iowa vs. Oklahoma -- Hyundai Sun; El Paso

Probable winners?
Ohio State, Clemson, Alabama, Iowa (screw the Sooners)

Final Four of sorts/Friday, Jan. 1 (featuring surviving seeds, low vs. high

Iowa vs. Alabama – BattleFrog Fiesta Bowl, Tempe
Ohio State vs. Clemson-- Orange Bowl, Miami

Probable winners?
Alabama, Clemson

Championship game, Monday, Jan. 11
Alabama vs. Clemson– Northwestern Mutual Rose Bowl, Pasadena

Sure, it may end up being this way anyway in the current four-team system. But the fun is letting all play out. Because if you don’t let them play it out on the field, you’re a damn Commie.

Tuesday, December 9, 2014

Oh College Football Postseason Tournament, How I Love Thee.

Nothing beats this time of year. Stressing over what gifts your loved ones and friends will accept/tolerate. Stocking up on a "special" supply of eggnog, hot chocolate and cider. Listening to endless number of covers of classic Christmas songs. Enduring bad Lifetime and Hallmark holiday-themed movies. Commiserating over family dysfunction during a time that's supposed to be filled with positive personal reflection and cheer.

When it comes to the NCAA Division I football national championship, over the years the holidays collectively had been a time to debate the fairness of the Bull Crap Series, errr, umm, Bowl Championship Series or previous incarnations, or simply the Associated Press picking the No. 1 team. Now we’ve reached an era I never thought I’d see in my lifetime: a semblance of a playoff. The four-team “tournament” is a starting point. It had better be. Sure, the current weekly rankings appear to have been a red herring before the playoff committee finally picked four schools it deemed worthy to duke it out for a national title. But it’s got people talking, week to week, until the end about who gets in and who’s left out.

Before the four-team system was created, I’ve played out in my head a scenario. What if we go to the furthest extent possible and create a 16-team playoff system? Even better, no heavy drinking was required in the making of this scenario in my head. Having such a tournament is a better way to truly determine, on the field, a “one true champion” … to rule them all. (See what I did there?) Way better than a computer helping to determine a No. 1 and No. 2 team. You BCS apologists may call that fair, but IT’S A FREAKING COMPUTER. I dunno but I like it when champions are crowned in a final game, on a field. And we Americans, for the most part, love us some playoffs.

A championship tournament of some type exists for most every other level of sport out there. Wow. What a startling concept. Even the Kazahkistani kick-goathead league has a playoff. I’ve won some money there. I've lost even more money there. Without the NCAA basketball tournament, schools such as George Mason and Butler likely would have never made it to the Final Four. You have seen Gonzagas and Marquettes make their mark on the national scene. Without the College World Series, schools such as Cal State-Fullerton and Long Beach State -- not so much a Texas or USC -- get to shine and quite often.

My hypothetical 16-school playoff system would not mess with the current bowl system. Well, not half of it. Such a system wouldn’t screw with the “bowl games are a tradition” and “schools will lose money” and “you can’t make the student-athletes play that long or late into January” philosophies. Or that December playoffs would complicate things for students studying for finals. Welp, a tournament hasn't hurt FCS or Division II or III or NAIA schools. None of those arguments really work.

In most existing playoff systems/postseason tournaments, the most "deserving" teams make the playoffs, not necessarily the ones picked "the best." There's a difference. We can debate all we want about good losses, bad losses, strength of schedule, etc., during the regular season, but when it comes down to the nitty gritty to determine an absolute champion, why not go the way of a full tournament?

This is what I'd do to create a 16-team tournament. You start with automatic champions from FBS (Football Championship Series) conferences, be it regular-season champs and/or championship game victors. Yes, I know some of you have trouble with the existence of a conference title game. I see both sides of the debate have valid points, but I’ll stick what exists for the moment.

If there are co-champions, it’s up to the affected conference to determine who gets what we’ll call an FBS bid. You could combine the final regular season total average poll ranking with regular-season head-to-head outcomes for a tie-breaker. (Sound unfair? Good. You get to retain some semblance of unfairness in the process of arriving at a final national champion).

You could average the rankings of the AP, ESPN power, USA Today and Legends polls, emphasizing which schools get the most place votes, add the Congrove computer rankings, and arrive at a final aggregate Top 25 poll (a de facto old BCS-style ranking system, if you will, without the computer interference). Those are arguably the strongest, long-standing, most popular and credible of Division I polls.

Here’s what a final 2014 FBS aggregate poll would look like, with current conference titleholder status and final regular season record:

1. Alabama (12-1 SEC champion, title game winner)
2. Florida State (13-0 ACC champion, title game winner)
3. Oregon (12-1 Pac-12 champion, title game winner)
4. Ohio State (12-1 Big 10 champion, title game winner)
5. Baylor (11-1 Big 12 “co-”champion, LOLz)
6. TCU (11-1 Big 12 “co-”champion, LOLz)
7. Michigan State (10-2 Big 10)
8. Mississippi State (10-2 SEC)
9. Georgia Tech (10-3 ACC title game runner-up)
10. Kansas State (9-3 Big 12)
11. Ole Miss (9-3 SEC)
12. Arizona (10-3 Pac-12 title game runner-up)
13. Georgia (9-3 SEC)
14. UCLA (9-3 Pac-12)
15. Missouri (10-3 SEC title game runner-up)
16. Arizona State (9-3 Pac-12)
17. Wisconsin (10-3 Big 10 title game runner-up)
18. Clemson (9-3ACC)
19. Auburn (8-4 SEC)
20. Louisville (9-3 ACC)
21. Boise State (11-2 Mountain West champion, title game winner)
22. LSU (8-4 SEC)
23. USC (8-4 Pac-12)
24. Utah (8-4 Pac-12)
25. Nebraska (9-3 Big 10)

Marshall (12-1 Conference USA champion, title game winner)
Northern Illinois (11-2 Mid-American champion, title game winner)
Georgia Southern (9-3 Sun Belt champion)
Memphis, Central Florida, Cincinnati, (9-3 each, co-American Athletic champions)

Ultimately, FBS automatic bids would go to Alabama, Florida State, Oregon, Ohio State, Boise State, Marshall, Northern Illinois, Georgia Southern, Baylor (after winning the head to head with TCU), and Central Florida, or UCF (having the stronger Congrove computer power ranking over Cincinnati and Memphis).

You add any top independent team ranked high enough overall in polls for an FBS bid and/or four (or five) other highest-ranked schools, overall in polls. So this year these schools get an at-large bid: TCU, Michigan State, Mississippi State, Georgia Tech, Kansas State, Ole Miss

The ultimate FBS tournament seedings in a 16 vs. 1, 15 vs. 2, 14, vs. 3, etc. format would be:

1. Alabama
2. Florida State
3. Oregon
4. Ohio State
5. Baylor
6. TCU
7. Michigan State
8. Mississippi State
9. Georgia Tech
10. Kansas State
11. Ole Miss
12. Boise State
13. Marshall
14. Northern Illinois
15. UCF
16. Georgia Southern

Take into account the oldest, popular, most lucrative, traditional bowls and mix in some regional flair and considerate schedules. (I still await the Roady's Truck Stops FreeCreditReport.com Pomegranate Cherry Salad Bowl presented by Franklin American Mortgage Company, but I digress.)

All joking aside, use 15 of those prestigious, richest, most famous (i.e. powerful, established) bowls as the FBS bowl matches. All other bowls, may remain independent and ongoing aside from the FBS contests, some may provide comedic fodder to those of us snarkiest bunches on Twitter. No changes needed there.

Rotate the FBS bowls as quarterfinal, semifinal and final games, all of which could retain and maybe even increase the number of ticket-buyers, TV viewers and payouts. One reason? There’s even greater incentive to play in such a bowl. Not just one bowl. But a series of true head-to-head games where all the conference champions (not just the typical, known powerhouses) and other top-ranked squads have a genuine (and fair) shot at an undisputed national title. Throw in serious regional, tie-in considerations and, voila. Imagine that!

The younger, Decemberish bowls host quarterfinals on Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, given this year’s calendar: 1 vs. 16, 2 vs. 15, 3 vs. 14, 4 vs. 13, 5 vs. 12, 6 vs. 11, 7 vs. 10, and 8 vs. 9.

Tuesday, Dec. 16
Boise State vs. Baylor -- TicketCity Catcus (formerly Copper, Insight, Buffalo Wild Wings); Tempe
Georgia Southern vs. Alabama -- TaxSlayer (formerly Gator); Jacksonville

Wednesday, Dec. 17
Georgia Tech vs. Mississippi State -- Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus (formerly Tangerine, Capital One); Orlando
Northern Illinois vs. Oregon -- National University Holiday; San Diego

Thursday, Dec. 18
Marshall vs. Ohio State -- Outback (formerly Hall of Fame); Tampa
Kansas State vs. Michigan State -- Valero Alamo;

Friday, Dec. 19
Ole Miss vs. TCU -- AutoZone Liberty; Memphis
UCF vs. Florida State -- Duck Commander Independence; Shreveport

Probable winners?
Baylor, Alabama, Georgia Tech, Oregon, Ohio State, Kansas State, Ole Miss, Florida State

More bowls in following week's semifinals involve 1-16 vs. 8-9; 5-12 vs. 4-13; 6-11 vs. 3-14; 7-10 vs. 2-15.

Friday, Dec. 26
Kansas State vs. Florida State -- Goodyear Cotton; Dallas
Baylor vs. Ohio State -- Allstate Sugar; New Orleans

Saturday, Dec. 27
Georgia Tech vs. Alabama -- Chick-fil-A Peach; Atlanta
Ole Miss vs. Oregon -- Hyundai Sun; El Paso

Probable winners?
Florida State, Baylor, Alabama, Oregon

Final Four of sorts/Friday, Jan. 1
Baylor vs. Alabama -- Rose Bowl, Pasadena
Oregon vs. Florida State -- Fiesta Bowl, Tempe

Probable winners?
Baylor, Oregon (haha)

Championship game, Tuesday, Jan. 12
Baylor vs. Oregon -- Orange Bowl, Miami

Who wins? Forget all your worries about health care, immigration, ISIS, the Philadelphia 76ers and the Kardashians. Well, let this unfold in reality.

Thursday, December 9, 2010

My NCAA football playoff geekdom runneth over


I don't doubt the two best schools, poll-wise, will play for this year's NCAA Division I football national championship. But yet, how we arrive there -- in relation to other schools and where they belong or don't -- again is a source of frustration. I speak of course of The Bull Crap Series, errr, umm, Bowl Championship Series.


Auburn and Oregon played solid football all year, particularly down the stretch, impressively beating their foes. Yet look elsewhere. So, Connecticut ties West Virginia and Pittsburgh for the Big East championship. UConn beat the other two to end the three-way tie and gets to play in a so-called BCS bowl, which somehow is seen as a holy grail even outside of the national title match itself.


Yet, West Virginia finishes 9-3 overall and No. 22 in the AP poll. UConn, at 8-4 overall, ends up No. 25 in the AP poll and OUT of the top 25 BCS final standings…huh, what, am I missing something? Don’t get me wrong. I’m a booster for the little guy. The supposedly “little” (relatively speaking) schools that could defy the odds and upset the college football elitists over the last years, such as Boise STATE, TCU, Cincinnati, Utah and UConn.

I’m sure you’d say, well, Connecticut gets the automatic qualifying bid from a BCS conference. Someone how has to be there in a BCS bowl, even if some conferences (even some BCS conferences) are, ahem, inferior. I get the idea of auto qualifiers, which assures supposedly premier conferences get good play in notable bowl games.

But if these teams are such quality programs, why need this AQ process to begin with? In the greater scheme of things, do you think UConn deserves to play in a BCS bowl game when Boise State, even with their kicker screwing the pooch against Nevada, nearly ran the table and ends up in the Las Vegas bowl, a non-BCS contest?

As the Bleacher Report points out in one article, “since the BCS began its system of bowl determination, there have been six teams with three losses that won a spot at the big kids’ table. Only one team had gone to a BCS bowl with four losses: the 2005-2006 Florida State Seminoles.

The Bleacher Report article by John Krenek continues: “To further the point, each one of those three-loss teams, and FSU, gained entry via the ‘conference champion’ clause. What's more, each one of those teams was never ranked higher than 10th, and that was a Kansas State team who beat Oklahoma in the Big 12 championship game, only to see OU play for the national title. Talk about your muddied waters. Do teams outside of the top 10 really have any business playing in games that were meant for the "best of the best," as they [the BCS powers that be] say?”

And I find it interesting that some who back “smaller schools” all year, honks for the likes of Boise and TCU who said their program deserved a shot at the national title game if either were to run the table, also endorse an inherently broken BCS system that’ll pretty much ensure smaller, lesser schools will only sniff but not touch a national bid…even if they truly deserve the top rankings. (Just to think how in 1984, freakin’ BYU won a national title in a Holiday Bowl by knocking off a questionable Michigan squad. This scared the bejeezus out of the powers that be.)

Those “powers that be” are primarily television executives and power conference presidents who only want to see and sell sex when it comes to bowl games. They'd rather arbitrarily pair two traditional powerhouses via a computer rather than let rising star schools settle such questions where it truly counts: on the playing field. Just like virtually every other level of sport. Wow. What a startling concept. Even the Kazahkistani kick-goathead league has a playoff. I’ve won money there. Without the NCAA basketball tournament, schools like George Mason and Butler likely would have never made it to the Final Four. You see Gonzagas and Marquettes make their mark on the national scene. Without the College World Series, schools like Cal State-Fullerton and Long Beach State -- not so much a Texas or USC -- get to shine and quite often.

Well, we won’t waste further time going into the minds of those myopically opposed to a NCAA Division I tournament of some kind. Even the “bowl games are a tradition” and “schools will lose money” and “you can’t make the student-athletes play that long or late into January” philosophies. None of those arguments really work. Never did, never will. Some say the BCS isn’t perfect, but that it’s a start.

So, what if a playoff system did exist for college football? My goodness, what fun that’d be. OK, let’s use BCS as a springboard. This is what I'd do. You start with automatic champions from 11 FBS conferences (regular-season champs and/or championship game victors). If there are co-champions, it’s up to the affected conference to determine who gets what we’ll call an FBS bid. You could combine the final regular season total average poll ranking with regular-season head-to-head outcomes for a tie-breaker. (Sound unfair? Good then. You get to retain some semblance of unfairness in the process of arriving at a final national champion)

You could average the rankings of the AP, ESPN, USA Today, Harris and Coaches' polls, emphasizing which schools get the most place votes and arrive at a final aggregate Top 25 poll (a de facto BCS without the computer interference). Those are arguably the strongest, long-standing, most popular and credible of Division I polls. And you get to a beautiful bracket like the one above (courtesy of NCAA). Isn't it gorgeous and awe-inspiring?

Here’s the final 2010 AP poll with related final 2010 BCS rankings:

1. Auburn (BCS No. 1 SEC champion-automatic qualifier)
2. Oregon (BCS No. 2 Pac-10 champion-automatic qualifier)
3. TCU (BCS No. 3 Mountain West champion-automatic qualifier)
4. Wisconsin (BCS No. 5 top co-Big 10 champion-automatic qualifier)
5. Stanford (BCS No. 4)
6. Ohio State (BCS No. 6 co-Big 10 champ)
7. Michigan State (BCS No. 9) (co-Big 10 champ)
8. Arkansas (BCS No. 8)
9. Oklahoma (BCS No. 7) (Big 12 champion-automatic qualifier)
10. Boise State (BCS No. 11)
11. LSU (BCS No. 10)
12. Virginia Tech (BCS No. 13) (ACC Champion-automatic qualifier)
13. Nevada (BCS No. 15) (WAC champion-automatic qualifier)
14. Missouri (BCS No. 12)
15. Alabama (BCS No. 16)
16. Oklahoma State (BCS No. 14)
17. Nebraska (BCS No. 18)
18. Texas A&M (BCS No. 17)
19. South Carolina (BCS No. 20)
20. Utah (BCS No. 19)
21. Mississippi State
22. West Virginia
23. Florida State
24. Hawaii
25. Connecticut (Big East champion-automatic qualifier)
Also, Miami, Ohio (Mid-American champion-automatic qualifier)
Also, Florida International (Sun Belt champion-automatic qualifier, beat Troy earlier in season)
Also, Central Florida (BCS No. 25) (Conference USA champion-automatic qualifier)

Ultimately, FBS automatic bids go to Auburn, Oregon, TCU, Wisconsin, Oklahoma, Virginia Tech, Nevada, UConn, Central Florida, Miami (Ohio) and Florida International.

You add the top independent team ranked high enough (overall in polls) for an FBS bid and/or four (or five) other highest-ranked schools (overall in polls). So this year these schools get an at-large bid: Stanford, Ohio State, Michigan State, Arkansas and Boise State.

The ultimate FBS tournament seedings in a 16 vs. 1, 15 vs. 2, 14, vs. 3, etc. format would be:

1. Auburn
2. Oregon
3. TCU
4. Wisconsin
5. Stanford
6. Ohio State
7. Michigan State
8. Oklahoma
9. Arkansas
10. Boise State
11. Virginia Tech
12. Nevada
13. Connecticut
14. Central Florida
15. Miami, Ohio
16. Florida International


Take into account the oldest, popular, most lucrative, traditional bowls and mix in some regional flair and considerate schedules. You can keep some of the best bowls. (I mean, really. The glut of bowls is ludicrous. More and more are added each year, some from inauspicious sponsors. Does anyone care to see the San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl? Oooh, barnburner. Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl? Really? New Era Pinstripe? Good lord. Oh, we could so perpetuate the Poulan Weedeater FreeCreditReport.com Pomegranate Bowl joke.)

All joking aside, use 15 of those prestigious, richest, most famous (i.e. powerful, established) bowls as the FBS bowl matches. All other bowls… yes, even your precious uDrove Humanitarian, Beef O’Brady’s St. Petersburg, Little Caesars, GoDaddy.com… may remain independent and ongoing aside from the FBS contests. No changes needed there. (But tell me if there’s a difference between the Armed Forces and Military bowls.)

Rotate the FBS bowls as quarterfinal, semifinal and final games, all of which could retain and maybe even increase the number of ticket-buyers, TV viewers and payouts. One reason? There’s even greater incentive to play in such a bowl. Not just one bowl. But a series of true head-to-head games where all the conference champions (not just the typical, known powerhouses) and other top-ranked squads have a genuine (and fair) shot at an undisputed national title. Throw in serious regional consideration and voila. Imagine that!

The younger, Decemberish bowls host quarterfinals on Wednesday, Thursday, Friday and Saturday:

December 15
Connecticut v. Wisconsin - Independence Bowl, Shreveport
Nevada v. Stanford - Insight Bowl, Tempe

December 16
Florida International v. Auburn– Chick-Fil-A (Peach) Bowl, Atlanta
Miami, Ohio v. Oregon - Sun Bowl, El Paso

Dec. 17
Virginia Tech v. Ohio State – Gator Bowl, Jacksonville
Arkansas v. Oklahoma - Alamo Bowl, San Antonio

Dec. 18
Central Florida v. TCU – Liberty Bowl, Memphis
Boise State v. Michigan State – Holiday Bowl, San Diego

Probable winners?
Wisconsin, Auburn, Oregon, Ohio State, Arkansas, TCU, Boise State, Stanford

More bowls in Thursday and Friday (or Saturday were it not for holiday) semifinals (lowest v. highest-seeded winners):

Dec. 23
Boise State v. Auburn – Capital One Bowl, Orlando
Arkansas v. Oregon – Cotton Bowl, Dallas

Dec. 24
Stanford v. Wisconsin – Rose Bowl, Pasadena (See? It still shakes out Pac 10 v. Big 10)
Ohio State v. TCU– Outback Bowl, Tampa

Probable winners?
Auburn, Oregon, TCU, Stanford

Final Four of sorts/Friday, Dec. 31
Stanford v. Auburn - Fiesta Bowl, Tempe
TCU v. Oregon - Orange Bowl, Miami

Probable winners?
TCU (yep, I’d go for them), Auburn

Championship game, Friday, Jan. 7
Sugar Bowl, New Orleans
TCU v. Auburn

I’d probably still back Auburn in this one, but would not be surprised if TCU gave them a great run. But I guess we’ll never know. I recall how a House subcommittee approved legislation in late 2009 aimed at forcing college football to switch to a playoff system to determine a national champion, over the objections of some lawmakers who said Congress had more pressing matters on its plate. To those naysayers, I say screw war, health care and jobs. Give us a playoff system!

Wednesday, December 9, 2009

NCAA football playoff geekdom runneth over

Now to the Bull Crap Series, errr, umm, Bowl Championship Series. Although its advocates will again argue otherwise, the BCS has yet again proven ineffective in yielding a true No. 1 vs. No. 2 match for the NCAA Division I football title.

Sure, I'm a Longhorn honk. I admit UT is an above-average-at-best No. 2 team in the nation. Alabama indeed deserves the top ranking right now. Yet I can't deny unbeaten and well-balanced (and pretty well-tested) TCU, Cincinnati and Boise State that they, too, deserve a fair shot at a national title. Who's the better school in Texas? TCU? UT? Only a head-to-head contest would settle that question.

Could Cincinnati top Boise State? I'm sure millions of objective purists would love to see that match play out...except, of course, for the "powers that be"--television executives and power conference presidents who only want to see and sell sex when it comes to bowl games. They'd rather arbitrarily pair two traditional powerhouses via a computer rather than let rising star schools settle such questions where it truly counts: on the playing field.

I’m not sure who the real top two teams are. You don’t, either. I’m very sure neither does a computer. As the quote goes, that’s why they play the game. On the playing surface. Like virtually every other sporting organization on earth. Even the Kazahkistani kick-goathead league has a playoff. Without the NCAA basketball tournament, a school like George Mason likely would have never made it to the Final Four. You see Gonzagas and Marquettes make their mark on the national scene. Without the College World Series, schools like Cal State-Fullerton and Long Beach State -- not so much a Texas or USC -- get to shine.

Well, we won’t waste further time going into the minds of those myopically opposed to a NCAA Division I tournament of some kind. Even the “bowl games are a tradition” and “schools will lose money” and “you can’t make the student-athletes play that long or late into January” philosophies. None of those arguments really work. Never did, never will.

So, what if a playoff system did exist for college football? This is what I'd do. You start with automatic champions from 11 conferences (regular-season champs and/or championship game victors). In this year’s case, those automatic bids go to: Georgia Tech (ACC), Texas (Big 12), Cincinnati (Big East), Ohio State (Big 10), East Carolina (Conference USA), Mid-American (Central Michigan), Mountain West (TCU), Oregon (Pac-10), Alabama (SEC), Troy (Sun Belt) and Boise State (WAC).

You could average the rankings of the AP, USA Today, Harris and Coaches' polls, emphasizing which schools get the most place votes and arrive at a final aggregate Top 25 poll (a de facto BCS without the computer interference). Those are arguably the strongest, long-standing, most popular and credible of Division I polls.

You add the top independent team ranked high enough (overall in polls) for an FBS bid and/or four (or five) other highest-ranked schools (overall in polls). So this year these schools get an at-large bid: Florida, Penn State, Iowa, Virginia Tech and LSU.

1. Alabama (SEC Champion-automatic)
2. Texas (Big 12 Champion-automatic)
3. TCU (Mountain West Champion-automatic)
4. Cincinnati (Big East Champion-automatic)
5. Florida (SEC East Division Champ-at large)
6. Boise State (WAC Champion-automatic)
7. Oregon (Pac-10 Champion-automatic)
8. Ohio State (BIg 10 Champ-automatic)
9. Georgia Tech (ACC Champ-automatic)
10. Penn State (Big 10 third place-at large)
11. Iowa (Big 10 second place-at large)
12. Virginia Tech (ACC second place, Coastal Division-at large)
13. LSU (second place, Western Division-at large)
14. BYU (second place, Mountain West)
15. Miami, Fla. (third place, ACC Coastal)
16. Pittsburgh
17. West Virginia
18. Oregon State
19. Oklahoma State
20. Nebraska
21. Stanford
22. Arizona
23. Wisconsin
24. Utah
25. Central Michigan (Mid-American champ-automatic)

The ultimate FBS tournament seedings in a 16 vs. 1, 15 vs. 2, 14, vs. 3, etc. format would be:

1. Alabama
2. Texas
3. TCU
4. Cincinnati
5. Florida
6. Boise State
7. Oregon
8. Ohio State
9. Georgia Tech
10. Penn State
11. Iowa
12. Virginia Tech
13. LSU
14. Central Michigan
15. East Carolina
16. Troy

Take into account the oldest, popular, most lucrative, traditional bowls and mix in some regional flair and considerate schedules. You can keep some of the best bowls. (I mean, really. The glut of bowls is ludacrous. More and more are added each year, some from inauspicious sponsors. Does anyone care to see the EagleBank Bowl? The what? Or the San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl? Oooh, barnburner. The St. Petersburg Bowl? Really? Oh, we could so perpetuate the Poulan Weedeater FreeCreditReport.com Pomegranite Bowl joke.)

Rotate the remaining bowls as quarterfinal, semifinal and final games, all of which could retain and maybe even increase the number of ticket-buyers and TV viewers. One reason? There’s even greater incentive to play in such a bowl. Not just one bowl. But a series of true head-to-head games where all the conference champions (not just the typical, known powerhouses) and other top-ranked squads have a genuine (and fair) shot at an undisputed national title. Throw in serious regional consideration and voila. Imagine that!

The younger, Decemberish bowls host quarterfinals on Wednesday, Thursday, Friday and Saturday:
December 16
Georgia Tech v. Ohio State - Independence Bowl, Shreveport
Iowa v. Boise State- Insight Bowl, Tempe

December 17
Troy v. Alabama – Chick-Fil-A (Peach) Bowl, Atlanta
Central Michigan v. TCU - Sun Bowl, El Paso

Dec. 18
Virginia Tech v. Florida – Gator Bowl, Jacksonville
East Carolina v. Texas- Alamo Bowl, San Antonio

Dec. 19
LSU v. Cincinnati – Liberty Bowl, Memphis
Penn State v. Oregon – Holiday Bowl, San Diego

Probable winners?
Georgia Tech, Boise State, Alabama, TCU, Florida, Texas, Cincinnati, Oregon

More bowls in Thursday and Saturday semifinals (lowest v. highest-seeded winners):

Dec. 24
Georgia Tech v. Alabama – Capital One Bowl, Orlando
Oregon v. Texas– Cotton Bowl, Dallas

Dec. 26
Boise State v. TCU – Fiesta Bowl, Tempe
Florida v. Cincinnati – Outback Bowl, Tampa

Probable winners?
Alabama, Oregon, TCU, Cincinnati

Final Four of sorts/Friday, Jan. 1
Cincinnati v. Alabama - Orange Bowl, Miami
Oregon v. TCU- Sugar Bowl, New Orleans

Probable winners?
Alabama, TCU

Championship game, Friday, Jan. 8
Rose Bowl, Pasadena
TCU v. Alabama

Yeah, the winner would probably be Alabama. But I guess we'll never really know. Interesting that a House subcommittee approved legislation Wednesday aimed at forcing college football to switch to a playoff system to determine a national champion, over the objections of some lawmakers who said Congress had more pressing matters on its plate.
To those naysayers, I say screw war, health care and jobs. Give us a playoff system!

Tuesday, December 9, 2008

Now to the Bull Crap Series, errr, umm, Bowl Championship Series. Although its advocates will again argue otherwise, the BCS has yet again proven ineffective in yielding a true No. 1 vs. No. 2 match for the NCAA Division I football title.

Florida and Oklahoma ? Really? Seriously? These two teams are among the best and proved their worth in their recent conference championship games. But is this really the best pairing the system could come up with? In a year that saw Texas beat OU on a neutral site and, despite losing to Texas Tech ever so slightly in at a game’s end, Texas be at the mercy of a computer’s ever-so-narrow ranking margin? And Florida fell to Mississippi.

I’m not sure who the real top two teams are. You don’t, either. I’m very sure neither does a computer. As the quote goes, that’s why they play the game. On the playing surface. Like virtually every other sporting organization on earth. Even the Kazahkistani kick-goathead league has a playoff.Well, we won’t waste further time going into the minds of those myopically opposed to a NCAA Division I tournament of some kind. Even the “bowl games are a tradition” and “schools will lose money” and “you can’t make the student-athletes play that long or late into January” philosophies. None of those arguments work. Never did, never will.

So, what if a playoff system did exist for college football? You start with automatic champions from 11 conferences (regular-season champs and/or championship game victors). In this year’s case, those bids go to: Boston College (ACC), Oklahoma (Big 12), Cincinnati (Big East), Penn State (Big 10), East Carolina (Conference USA), Buffalo (Mid-American), Utah (Mountain West), USC (Pac-10), Florida (SEC), Troy (Sun Belt) and Boise State (WAC).

You could averaging (the rankings of the AP Top 25 and USA Today polls, emphasizing which schools get the most place votes. Those are arguably the strongest, long-standing, most popular and credible of Division I polls. You add the top independent team ranked high enough (overall in polls) for an FBS bid and/or four (or five) other highest-ranked schools (overall in polls). So this year these get an at-large bid: Texas, Alabama , Texas Tech, Ohio State and TCU.

The ultimate FBS tournament seedings in a 16 vs. 1, 15 vs. 2, 14, vs. 3, etc. format would be:
1. Florida
2. Oklahoma
3. Texas
4. Alabama
5. USC
6. Penn State
7. Utah
8. Texas Tech
9. Boise State
10. Ohio State
11. TCU
12. Cincinnati
13. Boston College
14. East Carolina
15. Troy
16. Buffalo

Take into account the oldest, popular, most lucrative, traditional bowls and mix in some regional flair and considerate schedules. You can keep some of the best bowls. (I mean, really. The glut of bowls is ludacrous. More and more are added each year, some from inauspicious sponsors. Does anyone care to see the EagleBank Bowl? The what? Or the San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl? Oooh, barnburner. Oh, we could so perpetuate the Poulan Weedeater FreeCreditReport.com Pomegranite Bowl joke.)

Rotate the remaining bowls as quarterfinal, semifinal and final games, all of which could retain and maybe even increase the number of ticket-buyers and TV viewers. One reason? There’s even greater incentive to play in such a bowl. Not just one bowl. But a series of true head-to-head games where all the conference champions (not just the typical, known powerhouses) and other top-ranked squads have a genuine (and fair) shot at an undisputed national title. Imagine that!

The younger, Decemberish bowls host quarterfinals on Thursday, Friday, Saturday and Monday:

December 18
Buffalo v. Florida - Independence Bowl, Shreveport
Cincinnati v. USC - Insight Bowl, Tempe

December 19
Troy v. Oklahoma – Chick-Fil-A (Peach) Bowl, Atlanta
East Carolina v. Texas - Sun Bowl, El Paso

Dec. 20
Boston College v. Alabama – Gator Bowl, Jacksonville
Boise State v. Texas Tech - Alamo Bowl, San Antonio

Dec. 22
TCU v. Penn State – Liberty Bowl, Memphis
Ohio State v. Utah – Holiday Bowl, San Diego

Potential winners? Florida , USC, Oklahoma , Texas , Alabama , Boise State (sorry, Tech), Penn State and Utah (yep, you read right).

More bowls in Friday and Saturday semifinals (lowest v. highest-seeded winners):

Dec. 26
Boise State v. Florida – Capital One Bowl, Orlando
Penn State v. Texas – Cotton Bowl, Dallas

Dec. 27
Utah v. Oklahoma – Rose Bowl, Pasadena
USC v. Alabama – Outback Bowl, Tampa

Potential winners? Florida , Texas , USC, Oklahoma

Final Four of sorts/Friday, Jan. 2
USC v. Florida - Orange Bowl, Miami
Texas v. Oklahoma - Sugar Bowl, New Orleans

Potential winners? Florida, Texas (yes, I said Texas)

Championship game, Friday, Jan. 9
Texas v. Florida, Fiesta Bowl, Tempe

Yeah, it'd probably be Florida. But I guess we'll never really know.